Major league baseball is a popular sport to bet on. But there are also plenty of professional leagues and competitions you can profit form. You’re not limited to betting on baseball season only, either, there’s.
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Of the four major American sports, the NBA is still regarded as the easiest to predict on a nightly basis. This perceived predictability is a double-edged sword; on one side, it’s nice to be able to handicap a matchup on your own and be fairly accurate more often than not. On the other side, the bookmakers are close to or spot on with their opening lines with more regularity than we’d desire.
Still, betting on NBA basketball offers great profit potential to those who know how to navigate this unique betting landscape. One big key to staying profitable in NBA betting is to understand how the lines are made and what they mean. Staying sharp in this area will allow you to find spots where the lines are off and ready to be hammered, and also when to stay away, which is a big skill in keeping a good margin in NBA betting.
Our ultimate NBA betting strategy guide comes directly from experts who have put their money where their mouths are and have made their livelihood as advantage bettors for years. They’re happy to share their insights and expertise to give you helpful strategies to improve your NBA betting prospects. Whether you’re new to NBA betting or you’re a seasoned gambler looking for a way to sharpen your basketball betting acumen, we’re very confident that you’ll find our tips useful.
Our guide is broken down into sections to help give you an easier read and help make things easy to find if you ever need to come back and get a refresher on a particular topic. Good to go? Let’s get started.
I. The Basics
These basic skills and strategies lay the groundwork for solid and informed NBA betting. You always want to have a good foundation to start with, and these tips help lay that groundwork. You might find some of these tips to be obvious, but simple disciplines go a long way. In the long run, keeping your betting game on the rails is one of the biggest factors that will separate you from winning and losing significant units of money.
While some of the tips in this section can be applied to most other forms of sports betting, they are listed here because of their unique value to betting the NBA.
Make a Bankroll Management Plan
Most folks budget when it comes to basic stuff like food or housing, but for whatever reason, they completely abandon this concept when it comes to gambling. But the bottom line is this: if you want to be able to gamble consistently and win, you have to have some basic bankroll management.
How you keep tabs on your betting bankroll is up to you; we’re not trying to force financial advice upon you. But NBA betting can be very intensive, and there is a lot of action to be had each night. To keep from hemorrhaging cash in a short amount of time, you want to have a good plan for what your overall bankroll is and what your standard bet will be based on the balance.
No matter how basic your method may be, having a way to keep an eye on your bankroll will help keep you from going off the rails with huge bets that could cripple you if they miss. You’ll also be more likely to avoid the temptation of chasing losses. A good plan is the best way to stay in the pocket with your betting system and find out what works and what doesn’t over an extended period of time.
Stay Informed on Player Injury and Rest Updates
There is no worse feeling than playing a betting line you think is way off base, only to realize after your loss that the line was “juicy” because a star player on the team you bet was out for the night with an injury or was being rested. Not only do you feel like a square for losing, but you feel regret because you know you could have made a better decision simply by checking out the injury updates.
This kind of stuff happens all the time, and it’s just a black hole for your bankroll. Please make sure you’re staying up to the minute on personal news when betting. In addition to knowing who’s in or out of a game, make sure you have the latest on things like minute restrictions or if a guy is playing banged-up and won’t be as productive. Incorporate the information however you wish; just make sure that you have it in the first place. Don’t bet blind.
We’re not blowing smoke just to make a point; this is a huge priority for any serious NBA bettor. This is because injury news about players often doesn’t break until very close to game time – sometimes mere minutes before tip-off! You must stay apprised of injuries or other happenings all the way to game time, and our advice to you is to place your bet as close to tip-off as you can.
This might sound cumbersome, but not only is there amazing value in saving money on a play you would have otherwise made, but you also will find easy profit opportunities betting the other way thanks to breaking news. There’s a reason the big sharps have little closed-circuit TV monitors in their private booths – they relish the opportunity to race a ticket in before the book can change a line or take it off the board altogether.
When news breaks, it takes time for books to adjust the lines. The sharks take advantage of this. The fish miss out or get eaten alive because they didn’t know the facts. Don’t be a fish; BE A SHARK!
Pay Attention to Schedules and Schedule Tracking
The premise is simple; teams don’t perform as well when they’re fatigued as they do when they’re fresh. Much like the injury tracking above, it’s also good common sense to make sure your betting horse isn’t limping into the arena on tired legs. But what was long held by sharps as a hunch has now become a legit game changer in the age of data. We’re sure some big shot at the books played a role as well, but the bottom line is that schedule tracking is a big thing to watch out for now.
What is schedule tracking, you ask? Schedule tracking is looking at a team’s schedule and looking for rough patches in the schedule that would lead the team to be tired or fatigued. The hope is that on these particular games, the betting line fails to reflect this crucial factoid and a team is overvalued, giving great value to a bet against that team. This is especially valuable for teams that the betting public likes no matter the case, as books have to keep the lines high to keep their action balanced.
There are multiple angles to look for when using scheduling to influence your betting. The most well-known example of a schedule-based betting trend is the “back-to-back,” which is the popular way of saying that a team will play on consecutive nights. Back-to-backs are a part of most NBA daily betting analyses when it’s in play, especially when the particular team’s games are on the road or have a road/home combo.
However, simply finding a team on a back-to-back is not enough to guarantee profit on your play. Like we said earlier, this is a majorly tracked trend now. The bookmakers now know that this kind of money will come in big and they’ve adjusted accordingly. Staying that crucial step ahead will require a bit more keen strategy. Thankfully, we’ve got just that in the next section, which focuses on skills you will want to incorporate specifically for NBA betting.
II. NBA Betting: Get the Edge
Having basic betting principles down is a great way to ensure that you’re not simply throwing your money away. Beyond that, you’ll want to have some skills specifically tailored to the sport you’re betting. Below are some of the strategies and tactics our experts employ to find the best lines and stay up on the books. We’re happy to share, and we encourage you to use them and improve upon them at home!
Read the Bookmaker
One of the most important principles Sun Tzu teaches in The Art of War is to know your enemy, and that’s what this tip is all about. Learning to think about the bookmaker’s intentions when putting out a line is definitely one of those “separator” skills – by that we mean that it’s one of those defining betting skills that separate the consistently profitable pros from the losing recreational bettors.
This is a “game behind the game” tip, but it’s extremely important in NBA betting (just as much as in NFL betting, in our opinion). The principle is to ask a very simple question: why did the book open the line at that number? Expert sharps consider it second nature to ask this question, but most folks never even think to.
We could list examples for days, but let’s discuss one to show you what we mean:
A and B are two evenly matched teams playing in a highly anticipated game where a lot of betting volume is expected. Team A is at home. After all the factors like home court advantage and such are factored in, the game is a true pick’em. So, what do you think the opening line will be?
Team A – (-1)
That’s right; if you thought zero, you’re wrong.
In this example, we said the game is a true pick’em, and it is. So why did the book open the line at -1? Great question! Now you’re learning.
This is a common example of the public’s inclination to bet the home team in true coin-flip situations. Another common perception (even amongst experienced NBA bettors) that are leveraged by the books in this example is that if a team is going to win, they’ll likely win by more than one point, so it’s worth it to lay the point and pay less vig than you would on a moneyline bet.
Bookmakers capitalize on these common perceptions by putting pick’em games out at Home Team (-1) or (-1.5) to make the public pay a premium on their habit. They’ll also put out Home Team (-1) opening lines even if the home team should open as a 1-point underdog.
The reason? If public perception is that the game is a flip, the bookmakers know they’re going to receive more bets on the home team. Therefore, they want that side of the action to pay the vig so they make their profit on the percentages in the long run. And overall, they do just that. So long as the game outcomes fall on the 50/50 line, they make money on the point and all the times the supposed “dog” comes through. You profit in this scenario by avoiding the trap of hammering what you think is a betting favorite only laying a point at home.
We aren’t saying that every opening line out there is a trap by the books. What we are saying is that by asking yourself what the book is trying to accomplish with a particular betting line (or price) and why the lines are where they are, you’ll find great opportunities all over the board on a regular basis.
Find the Shaded Lines
“Line shading” is a term referring to when a bookmaker anticipates heavy betting action on one side of a matchup and moves an opening betting line toward that side. Line shades can be small (one point) or large (3+ points) and are a great profit-seeking area of betting if you know how to find them.
Let’s say the Boston Celtics go on a hot streak (both in wins and ATS) that gets a lot of media attention. In such a case, more public bettors will start to come in wanting to ride the wave. To keep their betting handle balanced, the books respond by inflating lines involving the Celtics by a couple of points. So if the Celtics were supposed to be a (-9) favorite in a game, the books will put them out at (-11) instead.
There is nothing wrong with what the bookmaker is doing here. If the Celtics stay hot, the books could lose a lot of money each game from lopsided betting on them. So shading the line is the correct move on their part so long as it evens out their action. They can discourage enough sharp bets on the Celtics who want to bet for value, and they make the public take a bigger risk of a dog cover.
In scenarios like these, the value play is often (but not always) to bet against the shaded line and take advantage of those underdog points. Both the books and the sophisticated bettors know that the line has been swung to disfavor a cover by the Celtics. It’s literally a gift to you. Take it! More often than not, the public will be disappointed, while the sharps enjoy a nice score and keep on trucking. The bookmaker is satisfied that they got enough action on both sides, and all is well in the betting world.
The only downside with this sort of play is that it is based on short-term perceptions, so you can’t really plan for it. The only real way to find these opportunities is to keep up with NBA news and events and build up a bit of a bettor’s intuition of when the masses have caused a line shade.
Another great scenario where books shade lines hard is on second-half lines where the action got super lopsided in the first half. This is covered a little bit later in the guide in the Middling Second-Half Bets section.
The overall principle here is to remember that line shading can happen for any reason. Much like the first section talking about reading the bookmaker’s intentions, a big part of finding a shaded line is to try to find out if the book is trying to encourage or discourage action on a certain side. The best way to do that is to stay informed.
Fade the Public
We’re sure you see this a lot; it’s part of almost any expert betting advice on any sport that’s out there. Well, it’s there for good reason! The books are there to make money, and they make money by forcing the public to pay a premium for their popular notions.
Even if a notion has merit, it will lose value in the betting market by way of having everyone doing it. It’s not that being with the public is always wrong; it’s just that in this business, it’s going to be very costly to do so over time. Awkward as it might be to tell your best buds that you bet against the hometown team this evening, it beats losing money to mere sentiment. Being a contrarian bettor is a skill you simply must embrace to keep your bankroll intact.
Betting against the public is a great intuition to have, and just by embracing it, you will find yourself sniffing out inflated lines and finding trends where the public is giving too much or too little credit to a team based on reputation or media coverage or whatever whim of the day.
Our tip to you is just to make sure you don’t overdo it. It’s nice to have the skill and the fortitude to go the other way when it’s the right play, but make sure it’s the right play. It’s not enough to find the public’s money and go the other way. That is a losing system. Instead, make sure you combine your plays against the grain with other supplemental factors that make your bet more of a high percentage prospect, e.g., an inflated line or a scheduling trend.
Know How to Middle the Second Half
Now we’re betting some NBA! This is a sweet play that you’ll want to learn; it’s an absolute moneymaker, and it’s a part of every professional bettor’s arsenal.
For those not familiar, the term “middle” or “middling” refers to instances where swings in the betting lines allow for opportunities where a player can bet both sides of a game and potentially win both bets.
Atlanta is playing Boston, and the line opens with Boston as a (-5) favorite. You bet on Boston.
An hour before tip-off, it is announced that Atlanta is resting two of its best players that evening and they will not play. Betting action comes in very heavy on Boston, and the book responds by swinging the line on all the way up to a (-10) favorite.
The middling opportunity here is if you bet Atlanta (+10). No matter what, you will win one of your bets. But if Boston wins by 6, 7, 8, or 9 points, both tickets get paid.
This may sound like free money, but there is risk involved: while one of your bets will come through, if both don’t, you will be a slight loser by paying the vig to the house. Make sure you’re aware of the probabilities versus the price before deciding to take a middle.
Now that we have middling down, let’s make some money.
The tip we’re suggesting you look out for is when you’ve already wagered on an NBA game, and then the first half results in a blowout for one side.
Chicago is playing Detroit, and you bet Detroit as a (+3) underdog.
Detroit blows out Chicago in the first half and leads by 15 at halftime.
The bookmaker puts the second half line at Chicago (-6).
BEGIN HAPPY DANCE.
In this scenario, you already have an 18-point cushion for your (+3) bet on Detroit. Excellent.
But if you bet Chicago to cover the (-6) in the second half, Chicago can win the half by anywhere between 7 and 18 points and both of your bets will get paid (excluding O.T.). You now have an 11-point range where both bets will win. Most Excellent.
That example is not an exaggeration. Middling opportunities like these are out there throughout the NBA season. Sportsbooks make a ton offering half lines. But their weakness with some of these lines is that they have to put the line out based on where they think the bets will fall, the action that’s occurred, and the action they’ve already taken on the game. They also have to be wary of what competitors’ books are doing. And they have to do it all in very short time (while the teams are in the locker room).
Look for opportunities like these and crush the books when they give you a big opportunity like this. New online casino usa. It’s a winning play that’s yet to be corrected in the betting markets, and we highly encourage you to take advantage of it.
The best way to take advantage of this play is to have access to multiple accounts across betting sites. It allows you to line shop all over the world and increase your chances of finding these great plays. If you’re interested, you can find information on safe and reliable sports betting sites on our main pages.
Here are some other great tips and trends to help you become a great NBA handicapper:
Energy and Morale
The art of gauging a team’s energy level has many components. Part of it is being in tune with their schedule, and part of it is staying in tune with locker room tensions or stress (and how these tensions are affecting performance).
This is a difficult betting nuance to write about, especially for experienced bettors. So much of what you analyze in professional betting are hard numbers – spreads, stats, scores, rinse and repeat. Asking you to place actual value on something like locker room drama is a tough sell.
But the numbers we crunch are often just reflections of the trends we find by using our senses to observe the teams. How did player rest become a big trend in NBA betting? Because we observed it, bet on it when others weren’t, and won big. More than any other method, this how the pros find new trends before anyone else.
Following this tip is asking you to trust your gut, scary as that can be for some. This isn’t for everyone; if you just want to be a snipe-the-numbers bettor, that’s perfectly fine. You can make good and consistent money just going the math route. But in our opinion, the truly elite sports bettors – the ones who make trends and bend lines – trust their intuition on how to gauge a team’s energy level and determine when a team is ripe to over/underperform a line that’s out there.
If you decide to use this factor in your betting system, our #1 piece of advice to you is simply to take notes on why you’re betting a certain way so that you can track your results over time.
Don’t Be Afraid of Road Favorites
More than the other major sports, NBA lines are influenced by two big betting habits: home court advantage, and a team’s previous game(s). Most public bettors fear losing a bet because the other team got a charge from the home crowd or “got home calls from the refs.” It’s the reason they play so heavily on home teams.
As a result, there are often great value plays for good teams that hit the road. Books know they’re going to get big action on the home underdog even after they shade the opening line toward them. Worse case, the sharps hammer them early, they move the line toward the road favorite, and they’ll get the home team bets on the back end.
This is especially true of teams coming off a big loss in their last game. If a solid team is on a road trip and they get blown out in one game, take a look at them in the next game if they’re a favorite. Not only are they a good team looking to bounce back, but they’re probably playing a clearly inferior team if they’re still listed as a favorite on the road despite the bad loss. You’re might benefit from a more significant point swing in your favor, as well.
Sometimes it pays to be early in this spot, but all the same, the play is there. You’ll have to sweat out some home calls here and there, but this play performs quite well over time.
III. NBA Betting: Keep the Edge
Once you have some solid betting strategies to wield, it’s great to see good results come in. Staying ahead, however, means never being complacent and always looking for ways to improve your betting system. This section has just a couple of tips that we think you should consider to help tighten up your game.
Track Your Bets by Team; Consider Specializing
Every bettor has strengths and weaknesses in their game. Some of it is just natural. For instance, time zones alone can determine what teams a person sees more often than others.
This tip isn’t about overall strategy so much as it’s about tracking your bets and making sure your results are consistent across teams.
When you bet a game, you’re betting on the performance of both the winning and losing teams. If you find that you’re crushing your bets on one team and whiffing more often than you’d like on others, take a step back and ask yourself why. Hopefully, you’ll reach the desired effect and find out if and where you might be weak in your observation of certain teams. Then you’ll know exactly where you must either improve your analysis or just save some of those losing bets.
If you find that you’re consistently doing well with a certain group of teams, e.g., the division your favorite team is in, consider specializing your bets to games involving those teams and branching out from there. You’ll have a little less to chew on, and your laser-beam focus on just a few teams can keep your good results consistent.
Track Your Results by Bet Type
You certainly want to keep good records of your results no matter what sport you’re betting – it’s the mark of a good handicapper. But we think it’s particularly important to track your NBA bets by bet type. By bet type, we primarily mean tracking your bets by:
- Spreads vs. money lines
- Straight bets vs. parlays (and if parlays, how many legs)
- Full-game bets vs. 1st/2nd half bets or bets on quarters
These are just the most basic examples, but you can track your bets by any kind of pattern that you think is worth a second look. The most important thing is that you actually do it. The point of it is to make sure that each type of bet you put down is making you money. If a certain bet you’re making is a drain on your bankroll over time, save that bet or transfer it into a bet type that performs well for you.
Tracking your NBA bets will also help you ensure that you’re not throwing away your money on certain types of bets. If you’re performing well on full-game and second-half bets, but you’re bleeding cash on first-half bets, stop betting the first half! Likewise if you’re grinding out a nice profit on straight bets, only to give it right back by gambling on frivolous long-shot parlays.
Bottom line: tracking your results by bet type will make you money, save you money, and help you identify your strong and weak betting areas.
We hope you found our guide helpful and fun to read, and we’re rooting for you find those trends that work for you and pad your bankroll. No matter what happens, remember to have fun and enjoy the games!
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Indiana Pacers vs Brooklyn Nets Prediction, 2/10/2021 NBA Pick, Tips and Odds
by Josh Schonwald - 2/9/2021
Best Sports Bet Online
The Indiana Pacers are scheduled to take on the Brooklyn Nets at Barclays Center on Wednesday, February 10, 2021. Indiana opens this contest as 2.5-point underdogs. The total has been set at 231. This matchup report includes betting lines and our pick of the day for this game. Read More >>
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by Josh Schonwald - 2/9/2021
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What Makes a Best Bet in NBA?
Here you will find a list of tips from our NBA experts that will help you understand what makes up a NBA best bet and what you should be looking for in order to spot one on your own.
DOC'S SPORTS – At Doc's Sports we consider the NBA Playoffs our specialty, and in the NBA Finals in particular we have had some incredible results lately. In the 2016 and 2017 NBA Finals we have earned nearly $5500 in profit combined for $100 bettors with a 9-2 result for 7-Unit plays during this span. For any playoff series we envision how we think the entire series will play out from game to game and then when the oddsmakers' lines differ from our vision then we attack with a large play. The bookies set their lines with the general betting public in mind and we find there are often weak lines in the NBA Finals since more dumb money is in the mix compared to a regular-season game. Sometimes a playoff series deviates from what we expect and at that point it is time to look again at the series as a whole and recalibrate your prediction for the series. It's a lot of work, but the results speak for themselves.
ROBERT FERRINGO – I always say: gambling isn't magic, it's mathematics. And if you look close enough and follow the numbers close enough the best bet situations will always present themselves. There are always motivational and situational factors to consider, particularly involving scheduling. But what takes a play from good to great is when you catch a team just begging for a statistical regression because of either exceptionally poor or exceptional outstanding shooting. Align that regression with other factors and voila, you have a big bet. An example was one of our first 7-Unit NBA Plays last year on Boston on Nov. 11. They had lost three straight games prior to taking on the Knicks. And despite being a Top 12 defensive team they had allowed their three previous opponents to shoot around 50 percent from the field and around 48 percent from 3-point range. In the meantime Boston, which was one of the highest-scoring teams in the league, was coming off a game in which they were held to just 93 points. Facing a rival, at home, looking to snap a losing streak, and due for both good offensive and defensive showings, the Celtics destroyed the Knicks 115-87 against a 5.5-point spread. That's how it's done.
INDIAN COWBOY – We have had some great success in the NBA, posting four straight winning years. One of the main things I look for are teams that recently faced each other and the line the second time they face each other. For example, last year the Warriors were -17 favorites over the Lakers and Golden State sent a clear message with a 149-106 blowout. Then two days later the Lakers and Warriors hooked up again, this time in Los Angeles, and we took the 'under'. Why? We took it because we knew that former Warriors Coach Luke Walton would undoubtedly make the necessary adjustments, appeal to the pride of his players, and make them play harder on the defensive end after giving up nearly 150 points in their previous game. See, most people think just because a game ended a certain way, it is going to be exactly that way or similar the next time around and that is not the case. Though we are big on revenge, sometimes there is an indirect revenge. In this case, the indirect revenge was the underdog play better, but the way they play better is to get better on what they were grotesquely bad at last time which was defense. The final score on November 25th was 109-85 and the Warriors won - and the game went well 'Under' the 230 which we took for a nice 3-Unit winner. Hence, when you are watching the NBA this year, look for teams that play each other again within a short span of time as it has the elements of the opposite pace it had in the first contest.
RAPHAEL ESPARZA – Betting the NBA in recent years has been weird because of the big swing in conference dominance. The public will always bet the top 3-5 teams but getting value on the not so entertaining teams like the Utah Jazz, Memphis Grizzlies, Atlanta Hawks, etc. is were you can get some value. With rules changing this year some of my stats and trends are out the window. But, again, handicapping NBA non-elite teams this year could be what makes another profitable year and even bigger for my best bets. Also look for tons of NBA teams playing at a higher pace because of how their rosters are setup and we could see tons of points scored this year in the NBA. I am a guy that loves betting totals so this could be a huge NBA season.
STRIKE POINT SPORTS – In the NBA bettors are constantly looking for an edge. It isn't the easiest sport due to players resting and the dreaded back-to-backs, or even worse, back-to-back-to-backs. Players are asked to play a lot of minutes each night and due to this teams decide to rest players and don't make it public until after gamblers have already done their research on the lines. Fear not, my friends, as there are some opportunities to take advantage of during the dog days of the NBA schedule. One such opportunity is when a teams best player doesn't play. This DNP could be due to an injury or because of rest. Many times oddsmakers will adjust a line in order to sway the public in this situation. It is important to not always just fade the team that isn't with their best player. In this spot the 'short-handed' team has value as players that aren't often given a shot to make a statement do so. A teams best player controls the basketball and a lot of times they take possessions away from other capable players. An NBA player gets time because he is good enough to make a difference. We used to love taking the Lakers when Kobe didn't play. Now, don't get us wrong, Kobe is an all-time great. But when he didn't play his teammates did their best to shine. They didn't always win, but they were always scrappy and would have plenty of value.
ALLEN EASTMAN – I think that one of the most important tips I can give to NBA bettors is to always be aware of the trends. I am a big trend player. And not just the trends that go back for one or two years. I like trends that go back five, 10 or even 12 years. There are some teams that don't play well in certain cities. Places like Utah and Portland can be horrible for opposing teams and some guys just never play well there. The more history you have the better the trend and then the stronger the play. .
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JASON SHARPE – For me an NBA best bet usually involves finding a team that's going through some recent lineup changes due to injuries, trades or any other reason. For instance, if a player that is a starter gets hurt for a team and he's more of an offensive type player and he is replaced by more of a 'defensive-first' type player than I will tend to look towards betting an 'under' on this team, especially if a few other things come into play. And if more than one new player enters into the rotation that usually means I'm looking to strongly back something. The bottom line is the NBA betting market, like most professional sports leagues, is controlled by what I call 'the computer algorithm handicappers'. These guys will usually key in all the information on EACH team into their computers so each team has a game pace rating, a final score and offensive/defensive rating per possession to name a few stats that they all look at. My thinking is that these past stats for each team were accomplished when certain player(s) were on the floor and now if that team has a few different changes to who's representing them than we should expect some much different type results. The best time of the season to take advantage of these 'best bets' is usually at the beginning of the season involving a team that is using a few new players from the previous season and then again around the NBA trade deadline. Teams will quickly change the way they look and play when they have a different cast of characters on the floor. It's during this time of the season that you will see a lot of change and change is what we are looking for to get us one step ahead of the computer guys.
ALAN HARRIS – My main advice when looking for a top NBA play is do not overreact to injuries. Other than a quarterback in the NFL, a star player in the NBA has the biggest impact on a point spread. In the NBA, if LeBron James or Kevin Durant is announced out, both sharps and squares alike will run to the window with the thought that 'there's no way that team X can win without player Y.' Now, the Cavs or Warriors won't be as good long-term without those guys. But for that one game it's really not that big of a deal. The immediate thought is that the team is losing a bunch of points or rebounds but people don't take into account that yes, the backups are putting up less per game in those categories, but they are also doing it in less minutes. Also, starters will usually step up in a game where it's announced that one of the big guns will be out. We worked this strategy to perfection last season in a game between the Raptors and the Pacers. Kyle Lowry was hurt, listed as questionable, and there was a thought that he might come back that night. The overnight line opened up at the Raptors (-7) and it was announced early that Lowry wouldn't be playing. The line immediately dropped to -5 and that's where we jumped on it. What happened? DeMar DeRozan dropped 40, three other starters scored in double digits, and Delon Wright, who got some run due to the injury, chipped in with 11-2-6. Toronto wound up winning 111-100 and we wound up cashing a nice ticket on the Raptors.
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VERNON CROY – When it comes to making a big play in the NBA, I look for motivation by a certain team and I also look for situational trends. How tired is the team I'm going against; did they just play three games in four nights or are they coming off a close loss against a division rival? Is the team I'm taking playing with extra rest and what is their motivation level for this game, as we have all seen teams take nights off in the NBA? I also look at the injury reports and study stats from when these teams have played in the past. Normally when there is a key player injured the books over adjust the lines leaving lots of value for taking the team with the injury, as they will pick up their game to make up for the loss of their star player. Is there a revenge factor or does a certain team play another team harder than others, or is this a letdown spot? These are just some of the several factors that go into making a big play in the NBA for me, and after 18-years I'm still adjusting my systems and analytics to be the best I can possibly be to give my clients an significant edge over the books.
TONY GEORGE – An NBA Handicapping tip I use involves scheduling and more specifically East and West Coast road swings. I like to fade teams, especially good teams towards the end of a long road trip when they are laying points. As an example, say the Cavs are playing their fifth road game in six or seven days on the West Coast. And after playing the Suns, Lakers, Clippers and Jazz, now they have lowly Sacramento. When this scenario occurs, a good team will generally be laying six or more points to their weak opponent. I like to fade them and take the points. Road weary teams play little defense down the stretch and do what they have to do to just win a game many times.
DOUG UPSTONE - The methodology I use is by starting to create a spread based on three power ratings I use. They all have various components, designed to cover different aspects of the teams in a particular contest. Next, is the statistical advantages one team might have over another, particularly at quarterback, running the ball, stopping the run and rushing the opposing quarterback. If those show up as more one-way edges and match my power rankings, I move to the next step. That would be finding systems I have developed and look to find more evidence of a special play, and specifically I'm after ones that have a 75 percent or higher cover rate and with a minimum of 30 game outcomes and the scoring average rather easily covers the spread. Up next is reviewing situational aspects, that are team specific, which often can be nuggets of extremely useful information. The cherry on the top of the cake is looking at line movement or the lack of it in the first part of the week. If the power ratings are strong, the stats are in my favor, a system or two light up, and the situation is nicely favorable on the NFL contest that is not on everyone's radar to start a week, that is what I'm looking for in a big play!
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